Forbes: Bettors Wager $400K on Putin’s Fall by the End of 2026

An anonymous trader placed close to $400,000 on the crypto prediction platform Polymarket, betting that Vladimir Putin will not remain Russia’s president through the end of 2026. Forbes reports the wager has sparked fresh debate about whether users are trading on inside information, and about the rapid growth of geopolitical betting markets tied to wars and international crises.

Last month, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission opened public comment on a proposed rule that would regulate online prediction markets. The draft would ban bets seen as against the public interest or vulnerable to manipulation via confidential information, potentially including wagers tied to armed conflicts, terrorism, or political assassinations. Those rules aren’t in effect yet, so it’s unclear whether a Putin-related bet would eventually be barred.

A U.S. soldier’s insider-trading case

In April, a U.S. Special Forces soldier involved in the operation to capture Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro was accused of using classified information to earn more than $400,000 on the same platform. The Justice Department charged him with misusing confidential government data for personal financial gain, saying