Bitcoin Faces Brutal 2026 Bet: Polymarket Traders See $40,000 More Likely Than a Return to $100,000

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Cryptocurrency bettors are tempering expectations about Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) reclaiming $100,000 in 2026.

Bitcoin to $100,000 Unlikely in 2026?

Polygon(CRYPTO: POL)-based Polymarket currently assigns only a 9% chance of Bitcoin hitting $100,000 and beyond this year, down from a high of 91% in January.

Similarly, chances of BTC reaching $90,000 fell from 71% in early May to 16% as of this writing.

Interestingly, the odds of Bitcoin moving lower were relatively higher. Punters have priced in a 23% possibility of Bitcoin declining below $45,000, alongside a 15% chance of a drop below $40,000.

Divergent Outlooks for Bitcoin

Forecasts about Bitcoin's price action have surged. even as the asset struggles through a drawn-out bear market.

Popular market analyst Alessio Rastanipredicted Bitcoin would crash to $20,000 by the end of 2027 before making a sharp recovery.

Meanwhile, Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan said Bitcoin refusing to react to bad news, including BTC sales by Strategy Inc.(NASDAQ:MSTR) and CLARITY Act delays, is one of the clearest signs the cryptocurrency winter is ending.

Bitcoin rallied to its all-time high of $126,198 in October 2025. Since then, the apex cryptocurrency has collapsed nearly 505.

Price Action: At the time of writing, BTC was exchanging hands at $63,730.30, down 0.04% in the last 24 hours, according to data from Benzinga Pro.

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This article Bitcoin Faces Brutal 2026 Bet: Polymarket Traders See $40,000 More Likely Than a Return to $100,000 originally appeared on Benzinga.com

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