Asia-Europe rates fall as carriers gradually return to Suez

Asia-Europe container rates are falling as carriers continue to adjust capacity and routing across major trade corridors.

According to Sogese’s September Europe Container Market Update, the container market is becoming more fragmented. Freight rates, demand and available capacity are increasingly moving in different directions across individual trades.

Sogese expects a gradual return of services through the Suez Canal. The company believes this could release effective capacity into the Asia-Europe market faster than carriers can manage through blank sailings alone.

Asia-Europe freight rates decline

Recent freight data shows downward pressure on the Asia-Europe trade.

According to Drewry’s World Container Index, Shanghai-Genoa rates fell 10% week on week to US$4,368 per 40-foot container on 3 September.

Shanghai-Rotterdam rates declined 5% to US$4,092 over the same period.

Sogese also noted that blank sailings on Asia-Europe are set to fall from four to one next week. The company sees this as an early indication of capacity returning to the market.

Andrea Monti, CEO of Sogese, said carriers are increasingly responding to conditions on individual trade corridors.

“The container market is becoming less global in the way it behaves,” he said.

According to Monti, demand, rates and available capacity are increasingly moving in different directions across trade lanes.

Asian port congestion remains high

Port congestion is another important factor in Sogese’s outlook.

According to Linerlytica data cited in the report, Asian port congestion stood at 4.3 million TEUs when the report was compiled.

Sogese noted that this was above the 4 million TEUs recorded at the peak of the pandemic.

The report also estimates that Cape of Good Hope diversions are absorbing around 5% to 7% of global container capacity, equivalent to roughly 1.7 million to 2.4 million TEUs.

Sogese believes the combination of congestion and longer Cape voyages is increasing pressure on carriers to restore some services through Suez.

“Congestion has become the more urgent variable,” Monti said.

Carriers adjust networks service by service

Sogese said carriers are not making uniform capacity changes across their networks.

Instead, they are adjusting individual services, vessel deployments and port rotations.

The report highlighted recent changes by Ocean Alliance, Maersk, COSCO and OOCL as examples of this trend.

Sogese said these adjustments show that capacity is being recalibrated route by route, rather than expanded or reduced evenly across global networks.

For European shippers, this could mean more frequent changes to port rotations, sailing frequencies and transshipment arrangements.

Sogese expects gradual market rebalancing

Sogese’s base case is for a gradual, congestion-driven return to Suez over the coming months.

The company expects this to improve vessel productivity and progressively increase effective capacity on Asia-Europe routes.

As a result, Sogese expects freight rates to soften gradually rather than fall sharply.

The report also expects Suez services to expand selectively, without an immediate network-wide return.

At the same time, carrier network changes are expected to remain tactical rather than structural.

For European shippers, Sogese expects capacity availability and transit options to improve. However, it believes planning conditions will remain fluid as carriers continue to adjust their networks.

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