Perfect Storm: High Bunker Prices Meet Declining Fuel Quality

Marine fuel buyers entered 2026 facing a perfect storm, suffering some of the highest bunker prices ever experienced, paired with a sharp and concerning decline in fuel quality. Across the traditional marine fossil fuel supply chain, VPS has seen a marked rise in fuel quality issues, with the Middle East conflict playing a major role in driving both price volatility and quality deterioration.

For ship owners/operators, the message is clear, today’s fuel market is not only more expensive, it is also becoming more complex and unpredictable, with a higher degree of operational risk. This deterioration is already showing itself in the test data VPS have produced. Between January and July 2026, VPS issued 29 Bunker Alerts, more than the total issued across the whole of 2024 and already closing in on the 37 alerts recorded throughout all of 2025. In just seven months of 2026, the scale and frequency of these alerts underline a clear, accelerating rise in fuel quality problems across the industry.

Of the current 29 Bunker Alerts issued so far, Jan-Jul 2026, the combination of abrasive issues due to elevated cat-fines, plus fuel stability issues, account for 72% of these alerts. The ports requiring cat-fines and/or