New analysis from Sofar Ocean finds that widely used marine forecasts can miss wave conditions associated with dangerous vessel rolling and cargo losses.Most forecasts tell ships how high waves will be, but
New analysis from Sofar Ocean finds that widely used marine forecasts can miss wave conditions associated with dangerous vessel rolling and cargo losses.
Most forecasts tell ships how high waves will be, but height alone doesn't identify the impact on a ship. Wave period and direction, together with the vessel's heading, speed, and loading, can create dangerous rolling even when waves don't appear extreme.
Most marine forecasts have limited direct, in-water observations of the full wave field. As a result, wave period and direction can be harder to resolve accurately, even though both can be critical to how a vessel responds at sea.
Sofar Ocean's whitepaper examines the December 2025 Baltic Klipper incident, when the refrigerated cargo vessel shed part of its cargo off the Isle of Wight, England. Wave heights on the day were not extreme, but long-period swell exceeded 15 seconds. Standard forecast products did not identify that risk. Sofar's forecast used direct measurements of the swell earlier in its path and identified the risk more than two days ahead.
This finding matters as more vessels choose routes through areas such as the Cape of Good Hope. IUMI reported in September 2025 that heavy-weather claims had "spiked," linked
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