Deepwater FIDs Set to Drive Sub-Saharan Africa Production Growth

Sub-Saharan Africa’s deepwater production is expected to grow by over 1 million boe/d by 2035 and big-ticket projects taking final investment decisions (FIDs) in 2026 and 2027 will be key to unlocking this.

In late January, Equatorial Guinea and Chevron signed-off the Aseng Gas blowdown project. This will monetize ~1 Tcf from Aseng on Block I and help backfill the Equatorial Guinea LNG plant.

We expect production to start in 2028. And in May, Eni gave the greenlight to Phase 3 of the Baleine project offshore Côte d’Ivoire. The full-field Phase 3 development will increase oil production from ~60,000 to 150,000 bbl/d and gas output from 80 to 200 MMcf/d. We expect the increased production by the end of the decade.

Azule Energy’s Blocks 31 and 31/21 Greater PAJ project in Angola was sanctioned in June. While FID was expected early this year, Equinor’s earlier decision to sell its stakes in Blocks 31 and 31/21 may have contributed to a delay. The Norwegian NOC has since doubled down on the development, pulling the sale of the assets from the market. Either way, the project has achieved a crucial milestone. It will recover ~250 MMbbl of oil from seven fields spread over