OPINION | AUKUS has put Australia's submarine effort back on track

By contrast, the government of Kevin Rudd said in 2009 that Australia would need to significantly build up its military capability by 2030 as a hedge against the prospect of major war where Australia might have to defend itself for a time with minimal combat assistance from the United States, which would likely be stretched and not able to spare much for the defence of Australia.

In defending against a regional military power (say, an aggressive Indonesia that was led by an authoritarian and nationalistic former general), we would almost certainly be fighting on our own.

Australia would favour fighting an offensive campaign, without having to call on the combat forces of the United States or anyone else. The objective of the campaign would be to rapidly destroy as much of the enemy’s fighting power as possible, with a view to dictating the terms of war termination and, hopefully, peace.

In a major war where the US and its allies would be fighting China, and possibly Russia and North Korea, along a long arc that stretched from Alaska all the way around the landmass of Eurasia to the western Indian Ocean, we would be, at a grand level, not on our own. However, our allies would find it hard at the outset to send us meaningful help.