Smuggler Tactics Make a Mass Casualty in English Channel "Inevitable"
The commander of the United Kingdom’s Border Security Command has warned the House of Commons Home Affairs Committee that it is only a matter of time before there is a mass casualty disaster in the English Channel – and it will probably occur this winter once sea conditions in the Channel worsen. Major General Duncan Capps was speaking to the committee on October 21.
General Capps’ concern has arisen because of new tactics being employed by the smuggler gangs who organize the illegal immigrant crossings. In recent months the smugglers have employed much bigger rubber boats, and are now using much longer crossing routes, tactics designed to lessen the risk of interception by French National Gendarmerie forces.
Whereas before a typical crossing was made between Dunkirk and Dover, a distance of about 25 nautical, with about 60 illegals on board, the smugglers are now cramming in over 200 illegals and taking a course between Normandy beaches and the English South Coast, a distance of over 80 nautical miles. One of these fragile boats has been recorded as having 230 migrants on board.
The smugglers when they used shorter routes were able to forecast when conditions might be favorable for the duration of the passage. But over the much longer route, it is much harder for smuggling bosses, let alone national weather forecasters, to accurately predict how long a window of calm weather might prevail. This was the same problem faced by General Eisenhower when he had to determine when to launch D-Day – over exactly the same stretch of water, though in reverse.
Foul weather coming up quickly can easily swamp rubber boats which are designed for short range and calm waters. The boats are dangerously overloaded, and the illegals are over-dressed and generally cannot swim; even if they are lucky enough to have life jackets, these are typically of inferior quality and might provide buoyancy for mere minutes in an emergency. The boats usually contain vulnerable women, children and babies who have no hope of survival if thrown into the water in winter.
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The rubber boats are often tracked across the Channel by vessels from the French National Gendarmerie, who contend that it would be more dangerous to attempt interceptions just off the beach than to allow the rubber boats to set off through these dangerous waters on voyages which can take up to 24 hours.
As General Capps has highlighted, the more aggressive action taken by the National Gendarmerie while the migrants are still on the beaches and are attempting to board, paid for and encouraged by British government subsidies, has merely encouraged the smuggler gangs to find alternative beaches from which to operate - making the Channel crossing all the more dangerous. A backlog of about 3,800 migrant hopefuls has built up in camps in the Dunkirk and Calais areas where they collect, about twice as many as the backlog which prevailed at the same time last year.
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