Amidst Tensions With Iran, Diego Garcia Fills Up With Support Aircraft
Nor is there an armada of warships moored in the lagoon; those present are part of the permanently-stationed Maritime Prepositioning Ship Squadron 2 (MPSRON-2).
In normal times, there can be as few as a single P-8 maritime patrol aircraft present on Diego Garcia. The arrival of additional aircraft from the continental United States has historically been indicative of either an increase in readiness or of impending operations.
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In the past 12 months, the range of Iranian IRGC drones and missiles has increased, and the accuracy of their targeting has improved significantly, aided by Russian and Chinese imagery intelligence now being passed to the Iranians in near real time. There is no evidence yet that the Iranians have yet achieved the ability to target Diego Garcia effectively; the last attempt to do so, involving the firing of two Khorramshahr-4 medium range ballistic missiles on March 20, was a failure. One missile landed well short of the target and the other was intercepted shortly after launch by an SM-3 interceptor fired from a US warship.
There is now a greater risk that the Iranians will be successful if another attempt is made, given their ability to improve the performance of their missile and drone arsenal. So with this increased threat risk, even if the UK government gave permission for offensive operations to be mounted from British-held Diego Garcia, it is likely that strike assets would be hidden and protected. An attack might be launched by aircraft based further afield, with Diego Garcia used for supporting activity and possibly as a recovery airfield.
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